Wednesday, June 29, 2022
For decades, a “balanced” investment portfolio has been, more or less, 60% stocks and 40% bonds. This was not an arbitrary decision. Based on the long-term and short-term returns of the Standard & Poor's 500...
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Wednesday, June 1, 2022
As if on cue, the US stock market began a significant rally last week. As we talked about in our last letter, sentiment is historically bearish, creating a very oversold position. A good bounce was very probable. And...
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Monday, November 29, 2021
This past Friday, November 26, was an ugly day for stocks the world over. In the US, the Standard & Poor's 500 declined -2.3%, as did the NASDAQ. Small and mid-sized stocks did even worse, as the Russell 2000 continued its recent...
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Tuesday, November 2, 2021
“The yield curve” is a term that economists use to describe the relative yields of US Treasury securities based on their maturity. If you plot the yield of various maturity Treasuries and connect them you will see a line,...
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Monday, October 11, 2021
In Mid-late August, the recently issued US Treasury bond had a coupon interest rate of 1.25% and was selling for 100. As of Friday, October 8, the price was 96.72, resulting in a yield of 1.61% to the buyer. This unusual 25% increase...
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Tuesday, September 7, 2021
Over the many years that we have written this letter, we have tried to avoid political commentary. I hope that readers will take this letter with that in mind. We are just presenting the facts. President Biden had a very bad month. The...
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Monday, August 2, 2021
For the last several weeks the value of Chinese equities has been plummeting. That is especially true of those entities listed outside of China and traded largely in the United States. Recently, the trouble started about a month ago...
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Friday, July 2, 2021
Marty Zweig was one of the most flamboyant characters in Wall Street history. He wrote an investment letter and many articles for Barron's. He managed mutual funds. And, he appeared regularly on the PBS show “Wall Street Week...
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Monday, June 7, 2021
This letter is a week late because we were enjoying a surprising and wonderful week at a place called Cape San Blas, not far from the Apalachicola River, in the Florida panhandle. White sand beaches, blue green water, and uncrowded...
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Monday, May 3, 2021
In his speech to an empty congress, the President did a good job of outlining the goals of the Democrat administration. Of course, he took a little time to take credit for vaccines and the astounding economic recovery that are...
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Wednesday, April 7, 2021
This letter often is focused on the shorter-term outlook for stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. We generally use the same market factors to help us decide whether it is a good time to add to stocks, reduce bonds, etc. In the very short...
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Monday, March 1, 2021
February was action-packed. There was dramatic volatility in just about everything. And most of it was negative, except for Bitcoin which, in a perverse way, seems to be becoming a hedge against all more traditional assets, including...
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Wednesday, February 3, 2021
I had to chuckle when Bryan Williams of CNBC was celebrating a week of "normalcy" last week. Sorry Bryan, there is nothing "normal" about close to 40 executive orders in two weeks. That is more than the last four Presidents combined,...
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Monday, January 4, 2021
Each year at this time we find it instructive to review our forecast from a year ago compared to what actually happened. It helps put things into context as we make our fearless forecast for the New Year. Last year's forecast turned...
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Tuesday, December 1, 2020
The election is over. Government is divided as anticipated. The markets like it. The vaccines are here, so the markets can look through the current COVID surge to a brighter Spring for the economy. The Standard & Poor's 500 has traded...
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Monday, November 2, 2020
Trick or Treat? Writing a market letter a day before this contentious election is not the smartest thing I could do. But it is the first of the month and rules are rules. It will be short as I anticipate having a “special...
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Friday, October 2, 2020
Shame! One paragraph is all it gets. The first debate was a ridiculous waste of 90 minutes of my life. Those two have no respect for the country, or you and me. I am proud to be an American. I was embarrassed by the silliness. The...
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Monday, August 31, 2020
It has officially begun. The silly season is upon us. The party conventions, such as they were, are over. The election campaign can now begin in earnest. The conventions were interesting. Contrasting styles and technological tricks...
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Monday, August 3, 2020
The XLE, the exchange traded fund (ETF) for energy companies has declined 40% this year-to-date. The shares of Exxon Mobil and Chevron are down similar amounts. The NASDAQ 100, NDX, has risen 23% year-to-date led by Microsoft, Facebook...
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Wednesday, July 1, 2020
Over my long career with big, and not so big, companies, I have had the “privilege” of attending many “offsite” conferences. That is when you spend a lot of money and precious time away from the office...
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Monday, June 1, 2020
I could write a book about the last three months. And, it would be a very long book as it seems more like three years! -Quarantine and masks -30 million people out of work in the US -Rapid government response -Huge deficit spending...
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Friday, May 1, 2020
May 1st is the traditional day to celebrate Spring and the new life it brings. This year it is especially relevant. Here in Texas, and in 38 other states, we are reopening our economy. People are beginning to go back to their lives....
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Tuesday, March 31, 2020
I believe that the Standard & Poor’s 500 reached a tradeable bottom earlier this month at 2250. But, the recovery to above 2600 today is a gift that will not keep on giving. It would be a very unusual Bear market bottom that...
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Monday, March 2, 2020
Last week was the correction we have been waiting for. Last month we suggested that the second half of February would see a buyable correction in stock prices from a severely overbought situation. Sentiment has been Bullish to an...
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Thursday, January 30, 2020
Let’s begin this letter with the conclusion. I expect a correction from the recent January highs on the Standard & Poor’s 500. I believe it has already begun. The media will blame it on the coronavirus, or something. It...
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Monday, January 6, 2020
Each year at this time, we find it instructive to review our forecast from a year ago compared to what actually happened. It helps put things into context as we make our fearless forecast for the New Year. Last year’s forecast...
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Monday, December 2, 2019
December is here, and with it comes the season when traditionally the laggard stocks in the market have a period of about six weeks where they outperform the broader market. Often these stocks have significant bounces from their...
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Tuesday, November 5, 2019
The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed today at 3061, a new all-time high. The technology heavy NASDAQ composite closed at 8386, also a new all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial average closed at 27,247, a new high, even with the...
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Tuesday, October 1, 2019
I have loved bonds for years. I have enjoyed the income as bonds have offered a good, real rate of return - the return above inflation, for many years. Now, not so much. US Treasury notes that mature in 2-5 years are considered in the...
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Tuesday, September 3, 2019
The short-term outlook for the US stock market is beginning to improve. Sentiment numbers from Investors Intelligence have finally reacted to the increased volatility and pullback in prices that has been going on since mid-July. This...
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Thursday, August 1, 2019
The Federal Reserve, as expected, announced a 0.25% reduction in the targeted Federal Funds rate to a range of 2.00% - 2.25%. This was hardly news as they have been telegraphing such a move for close to two months. In spite of that,...
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Monday, July 1, 2019
06/29/2019 - It was a great month for stocks and bonds. The Standard & Poor’s 500 returned close to 7%. For what it is worth, it was the best June since 1955. Although that won’t help you as you try to figure out what...
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Tuesday, June 4, 2019
There is an old stock market adage - “sell in May and go away.” Although most pundits discount its usefulness, it works more often than not. It certainly did this year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 reached a high for...
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Wednesday, May 1, 2019
On December 19, 2010, an analyst named Meredith Whitney was interviewed on the CBS news show 60 Minutes. Ms. Whitney had achieved fame by forecasting the bankruptcy of Citigroup three years earlier. This time, the subject was municipal...
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Tuesday, April 2, 2019
The Standard & Poor’s 500 was up over 13% for the first quarter of 2019. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained over 11%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ was the big winner, up some 16%. Bonds also did well as high quality bonds returned...
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Friday, March 8, 2019
This morning, Mr. Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, announced that the economic outlook for the Eurozone had deteriorated. Italy is already in a recession. Germany is close. The political and trade uncertainties surrounding...
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Friday, February 1, 2019
Alan Greenspan was Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006. That is an amazingly long time for any appointed official in Washington. Perhaps his longevity was due to the propensity of the Federal Reserve to rescue the economy...
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Monday, December 31, 2018
Each year at this time we find it instructive to review our forecast from a year ago compared to what actually happened. It helps put things into context as we make our fearless forecast for the new year. A bit unfortunate; our last...
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Tuesday, December 4, 2018
November made me tired. Perhaps it was the breathless mainstream news coverage of the midterm elections that in the end produced the most predictable result - a somewhat divided government. There was certainly no mandate for the left...
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Sunday, November 4, 2018
As expected, the global selloff of stocks finally caught up with the US stock market in October. In the month, the Standard and Poor’s 500 declined 7%. The Nasdaq was worse; declining close to 9%. Both are now essentially flat...
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Monday, October 1, 2018
Of course the elections will matter to the markets. But, not that much. The partisan divide and the sad state of affairs of the last week are giving us a preview of the next five weeks and thereafter. Shrill political ads full of...
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Monday, September 3, 2018
At least economically, the Trump administration has to be given credit for surprisingly strong performance. Second quarter GDP growth was upwardly revised to 4.2%. Unemployment is below 4% overall. Unemployment rates for Hispanic and...
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Thursday, August 2, 2018
Earnings reports from almost all companies in the last two weeks have been wonderful! The tax cuts have kicked in, the economy is doing great. Corporate profit margins are at all-time highs. The question must be asked, "IS THIS AS GOOD...
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Monday, June 25, 2018
The talking heads on the business channels are having a field day with trade wars and tariffs. As usual, they speak with great certainty about “what happens in a trade war.” I would remind them that few of us were around...
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Tuesday, May 1, 2018
The most overvalued asset type in the markets today is high yield bonds. These so-called “junk” bonds are generally rated below investment grade. That means the rating agencies like Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s...
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Tuesday, April 3, 2018
If you had gone to the moon at year end 2017 and returned at the end of the first quarter of this year, you would wonder what all the fuss was about. The standard & Poors 500 began the year at 2668 and ended the quarter at 2642. That...
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Monday, February 26, 2018
Obviously, January and February were very volatile months for stocks. It was also quite volatile for bonds. Although it was the kind of volatility that goes in a straight line. Bond prices have been going straight down. In November,...
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018
I hope your 2018 is off to a good start. Last year was a good year and as the market bounces around, it’s important we focus on “the long view.” Remember that countless studies have shown that it’s time in the...
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Monday, January 29, 2018
The US equity market, expressed as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, has had a pretty good year in January. The index has already returned 7.5% through January 26 for this year. Foreign markets have also been fantastic. The...
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Tuesday, January 2, 2018
Once a year it is easy to select a title for this letter. Each year at this time, we find it instructive to review our forecast from a year ago compared to what actually happened. It helps put things into context as we make our...
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Friday, December 1, 2017
Market sentiment, as measured by the Investor Intelligence survey, is extremely bullish, and has been for months. The spread among market letter writers is as wide as it gets. Bulls are 62%. Bears are 15%. This is a dangerously wide...
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Monday, October 30, 2017
The economy is strong. The US has enjoyed two quarters in a row of 3% or better growth, even with the disruption caused by the hurricanes. Earnings for the S&P 500 for 2017 will increase at a double digit rate for the first time since...
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Thursday, October 12, 2017
Shortage of Stocks? As an economist, I know there is no such thing as a “shortage” of stocks. Demand always matches supply. But, the trick of course is figuring out what is the future demand and supply, and at what price...
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Thursday, September 21, 2017
What To Do After A Major Credit Data Breach – Consumer Awareness Be Proactive: Request A Copy Of Your Credit Report Now Consider Freezing Your Credit: Only If You’re Not Applying For Credit Soon Subscribe To A Credit...
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The Guide covers a broad variety of topics, such as how to file flood claims, renters’ rights, how to replace your passport and/or credit cards that may have been lost or damaged in the storm, information about schools and about...
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Friday, September 1, 2017
The Lost Week It began to rain last Friday, August 25, in the late afternoon. It was a good, solid rain - not really a thunderstorm - just sheets and sheets of water coming down from the darkened skies. It finally stopped Tuesday...
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Tuesday, August 22, 2017
HOWARD MARKS Howard Marks is one of my heroes in the investment management business. He is the leader of Oaktree Capital, a firm based in Los Angeles that manages some $100 billion for large institutional investors. It is largely a...
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As our nation approaches the anniversary of its independence, I thought it would be good to reflect on the blessings of being an American.It is very easy for us to think about what is wrong with America. Everyday we are bombarded with...
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Whether they are just born, or are steadily advancing through the elementary grades, it is never too early to start thinking about college for your children. A college degree is a very prestigious achievement that will account for a l
Read MoreCaney Creek Report - Valuation - the Hardest Thing
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Facebook LinkedInMeet Our New Interns We are excited to welcome our two new interns to the teamPeriPeri is currently enrolled as a student at St. Edwards University in Austin, TX. She just...
Read MoreA new survey finds that baby boomers are some of the most motivated members of the workforce today.
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Read MoreThousands of Baby Boomers reach retirement age every day, though many aren't leaving the workforce. Yet.
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Read MoreA new study finds that most Baby Boomers expect to work longer and save more during retirement, rather than retire.
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Read MoreA recent study found that many baby boomers lack knowledge about Social Security benefits, which could cost them in the long run. To get the most out of their benefits, boomers should make sure they’re not making any of these Social S
Read MoreMany baby boomers have left retirement accounts with previous employers over the years. Consolidating those accounts before retirement can pay off in big ways.
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With the upcoming PGA Insperity Golf Tournament in The Woodlands, we thought you might enjoy this video.
Read MoreIt’s 2016, but the financial crisis of 2008 is still top of mind for many baby boomers—and it’s impacting their saving and investing habits. A new study finds that a significant number of boomers experienced economic trauma following the c
Read MoreThe Great Recession may have ended years ago, but many boomers are still supporting aging parents, adult children or both—and it’s negatively impacting their financial standing. Despite the reduced financial security, though, few boomers ha
Read MoreRetirees hoping for higher Social Security benefits shouldn’t hold their breath: there likely won’t be a cost-of-living increase in 2016. For many, putting a financial plan in place may be necessary to help stretch Social Security dollars f
Read MoreAccording to a recent Insured Retirement Institute survey, only 6 in 10 boomers report having any retirement savings, and just 27 percent are confident they will have enough money to last through retirement. Better retirement education effo
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